Bitcoin cash-and-carry offered $119 per coin before funding costs

Buying Bitcoin and hedging it with futures offered about $119 per coin in gross premium on November 10, less than the roughly $135 illustrative cost of financing the purchase for 17 days. The calculation implies 3.48% annualized gross carry against a 3.88% overnight funding benchmark. For a reader watching Bitcoin demand, it means hedged buying alone did not clear its funding hurdle that day.

Small futures premium against funding math

CME preliminary bulletin No. 217, dated November 10, lists the November Bitcoin futures settlement at $73,805 per BTC. The Coinbase BTC-USD candle beginning at 20:59 UTC closed at $73,685.73, a minute corresponding to 2:59-3:00 p. m. Central Standard Time and aligning with CME daily settlement window. Subtracting the spot close from the futures settlement gives a $119.27 premium, or about 0.16% of the spot price. Using the 17-day calendar difference to November 27 expiry and simple 365-day annualization produces about 3.48% gross annualized carry. The strategy, known as cash-and-carry, pairs a Bitcoin purchase with a futures sale and seeks to earn the premium as prices converge, with its attraction depending on funding and maintenance costs.

The New York Fed dated SOFR observations show 3.88% effective November 9, a measure of overnight borrowing secured by Treasury securities. Financing the entire $73,685.73 spot purchase for 17 days at a constant 3.88%, using money-market actual days divided by 360, would cost approximately $135.01 for illustration. Against the $119.27 gross premium, that leaves a $15.74 shortfall before trading and other costs. Using the minute low instead would leave roughly $21 per BTC after the same financing assumption, before other costs. CME futures are marked to market daily, so a rise in Bitcoin can require cash payments on the short futures leg while the spot holding gains elsewhere. An ETF version needs its own calculation, as IBIT lists a 0.25% annual sponsor fee and share prices can trade at premiums or discounts to net asset value.

Why hedged demand stayed on sidelines

The October CPI release, published November 10, showed consumer prices rising 0.4% month over month, with core prices up 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. Before the release, Governor Christopher Waller said a core reading around 0.3% or higher would warrant considering a 50-basis-point December rate increase, a conditional view rather than a committee decision. The November futures contract expires before the Fed December 8-9 meeting, so a December increase would not become an already-incurred cost on a position completed at November expiry. Policy expectations can still affect present funding conditions and the economics of rolling into later contracts, while an investor using cash faces an opportunity-cost decision and margin demands on capital.

The snapshot is not an executable trade quote and does not prove new carry demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $95 million in net outflows on November 10, following $201 million on November 9, according to Farside completed daily rows, but those totals do not identify strategies or link holdings to futures hedges. The available CFTC financial futures report covers positions as of November 3 and cannot show responses to November 10 prices. Evidence of carry demand would require executable premiums after actual funding, added spot or ETF exposure with corresponding hedges, and similar pricing across sessions.